{
  "slug": "potential-clicks-raw",
  "name": "Potential clicks, before the AI-Overview discount",
  "aliases": [
    "Raw upside clicks",
    "Modeled upside"
  ],
  "definition": "The clicks a keyword would have earned over the same window if it had ranked at the target position instead of where it ranks now, at this site's own modeled click rates.",
  "category": "Content opportunity",
  "type": "derived metric",
  "unit": "clicks over the window (modeled)",
  "direction": "higher-better",
  "verification": "verified",
  "calculation": "rawUpside = impressions × ctrGain, the row's observed impressions carried at the modeled click-rate gain from its current position to the target. Rounded to two decimals.",
  "aggregation": "Row-level. A worklist total assumes every candidate is nudged in the same period, which is a scenario rather than a forecast.",
  "grain": "One keyword × one page × the window.",
  "dimensions": [
    "query",
    "page",
    "brand",
    "intent",
    "device"
  ],
  "requiredFilters": [
    "date range"
  ],
  "sources": [
    "search-console"
  ],
  "reports": [
    "content-decay-report",
    "ctr-opportunity-report",
    "search-opportunity-report"
  ],
  "skills": [
    "striking-distance-sprint",
    "content-decay-refresh"
  ],
  "verbs": [
    "striking_distance"
  ],
  "rungs": [
    "R2"
  ],
  "levers": [
    "L3",
    "L4"
  ],
  "questions": [
    "How many clicks are our striking-distance keywords worth?",
    "What is the upside if we get these keywords onto page 1?"
  ],
  "interpretation": "A sizing device for prioritisation, and the word modeled belongs wherever it is shown. Its job is to order a worklist, not to enter a forecast, the ordering is far more reliable than the magnitude.",
  "caveats": [
    "Impressions are held at their current level, but a ranking change usually changes impressions too, in either direction.",
    "Every number inherits the fitted curve's caveats: non-stationary, segment-specific, and weak wherever a bucket is flagged low-confidence.",
    "It is the pre-discount figure, the worklist ranks on the AI-Overview-adjusted number instead, and the two should never be quoted interchangeably."
  ],
  "freshness": "1 to 2 days behind, Google's own reporting lag. Any answer touching the last 48 hours says so on the card.",
  "failureModes": [
    "Rounding a modeled upside into a commitment.",
    "Summing the whole worklist and presenting the total as expected traffic.",
    "Quoting the raw figure where the adjusted one is the number the product ranked on."
  ],
  "notSameAs": [],
  "related": [
    "ctr-gain",
    "potential-clicks-adjusted",
    "striking-distance-candidates"
  ],
  "workflows": [],
  "lastVerified": "2026-08-04"
}