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derived metric clicks over the window (modeled) · higher is better

Potential clicks, before the AI-Overview discount

also called Raw upside clicksModeled upside

Definition

The clicks a keyword would have earned over the same window if it had ranked at the target position instead of where it ranks now, at this site's own modeled click rates.

How it's calculated

rawUpside = impressions × ctrGain, the row's observed impressions carried at the modeled click-rate gain from its current position to the target. Rounded to two decimals.

Scope, grain and dimensions

Grain
One keyword × one page × the window.
Dimensions
query · page · brand · intent · device
Required filters
date range
Aggregation
Row-level. A worklist total assumes every candidate is nudged in the same period, which is a scenario rather than a forecast.
Metric type
derived metric · clicks over the window (modeled)

Data sources

Where you'll see this

Named reports that normally include this metric.

Content decay reportCTR opportunity reportSearch opportunity report

Skills and analyses that use it

Skills carry the judgment; the analysis verbs do the reading.

Analysis verbs

striking_distance

Method rungs and levers

R2 Retrieved

A rung tells you what a movement here can and cannot explain, read the rungs below it first.

levers L3 Refresh & content qualityL4 Internal linking & architecture

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How to read it

A sizing device for prioritisation, and the word modeled belongs wherever it is shown. Its job is to order a worklist, not to enter a forecast, the ordering is far more reliable than the magnitude.

Caveats, freshness and failure modes

Impressions are held at their current level, but a ranking change usually changes impressions too, in either direction.

Every number inherits the fitted curve's caveats: non-stationary, segment-specific, and weak wherever a bucket is flagged low-confidence.

It is the pre-discount figure, the worklist ranks on the AI-Overview-adjusted number instead, and the two should never be quoted interchangeably.

Freshness
1 to 2 days behind, Google's own reporting lag. Any answer touching the last 48 hours says so on the card.

Common failure modes

  • Rounding a modeled upside into a commitment.
  • Summing the whole worklist and presenting the total as expected traffic.
  • Quoting the raw figure where the adjusted one is the number the product ranked on.

Verification

Last verified 2026-08-04 · reference version 1.1 { } This metric as JSON ↗